People's Republic of China's Competitive Threat to Latin America: An Analysis for 1990-2002
How have Latin American exporters been affected by the rapid increase in the PRC's exports to the USA and other large markets? Are PRC and Latin American exports complementary or competitive with each other? This paper examines detailed trade data to provide answers to these important questions.
It examines the meaning of a "competitive threat" and provides a way of assessing the degree of threat from trade statistics. In general it finds that export structures in PRC and Latin American economies are sufficiently different for trade to be basically complementary with at present only a small portion of Latin American exports under a "direct threat" from PRC exporters. Mexico is the economy that is potentially at greatest risk; but as yet this has not shown up in the data.
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The views expressed in this paper are the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), its Board of Directors, or the governments they represent. ADBI does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts no responsibility for any consequences of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.
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