Conference on Global Financial Crisis: Macroeconomic Policy Issues
Agenda

Registration

Welcome Remarks - Masahiro Kawai, Dean, ADBI

Overview of the conference - Shinji Takagi, Professor, Osaka University and Lead Consultant

Session I: Monetary Policy Recommendations
Chairperson: Kazumasa Iwata, President, Economic and Social Research Institute

Paper 1: Monetary Policy Strategies in Asia and the Pacific: What Way Forward?
This paper describes monetary policy frameworks adopted by central banks in the Asia and Pacific region, and then characterizes the inflation experience in each economy with the intention to assess whether the different strategies have given rise to differences in outcomes. It then draws lessons from the current crisis for the design of monetary policy strategies in the region, including a review of central banks' policy objectives, the adequacy traditional policy instruments, and the question of closer coordination of central banks' policies in the region.

Presenter: Hans Genberg, Director, Hong Kong Institute of Monetary Research, Hong Kong

Paper 2: The Role and Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy
This paper will review the empirical literature on the effectiveness of various kinds of unconventional monetary policies, assess the effectiveness of such policies during the current global financial crisis, and assess the implications of this for Asian central banks.

Presenter: Peter Morgan, Senior Consultant for Research, ADBI

Comments by Discussants
Discussant 1: Shigenori Shiratsuka, Senior Economist, IMES, Bank of Japan
Discussant 2: Kunio Okina, Professor, Kyoto University

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee break

Session II: Fiscal Policy Recommendations
Chairperson: Masakazu Sakaguchi, Executive Director-Japan, ADB, Philippines

Paper 3: Theoretical perspective on fiscal policy implementation
This paper reviews the latest literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy in an open economy. It examines what conditions (e.g., exchange rate regime, capital account regime, type of spending/financing) are required to make fiscal policy effective.

Presenter: Koichi Futagami, Professor, Osaka University

Paper 4: Chinese fiscal policy implementation
This paper empirically analyzes the measures adopted by the Chinese government to stimulate the economy during the current global financial crisis, including issues related to fiscal and debt sustainability.

Presenter: Osamu Tanaka, Visiting Professor, Tokyo University

Paper 5: Costs and benefits of fiscal policy expansion
This paper empirically analyzes issues related to employing countercyclical fiscal policy in selected Asian countries (India, Indonesia, Korea and the Philippines) in terms of the effectiveness of fiscal policy and debt sustainability.

Presenter: Anita Doraisami, Visiting Fellow, ADBI, Tokyo

Comments by Discussants
Discussant 1: Yasushi Iwamoto, Professor, University of Tokyo
Discussant 2: HUANG Yiping, Professor, Beijing University
Discussant 3: Ajay Shah, Senior Fellow, National Institute for Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

Open Floor Discussion

Lunch

Session III: Exchange Rate Policy and Reserve Management Issues
Chairperson: Yung Chul PARK, Professor, Korea University, Korea

Paper 6: Macroeconomic impacts 1
This paper analyzes the transmission of monetary shocks under alternative exchange rate arrangements, applied to the specific context of Asia and drawing implications for the choice of exchange rate regime for Asian countries under the current global financial crisis.

Presenters:
Soyoung KIM, Professor, Korea University, Korea
Doo Yong YANG, Research Fellow, ADBI

Paper 7: Macroeconomic impacts 2
This paper analyzes the adequacy of the level of foreign exchange reserves in Asia and its implications for the effectiveness of exchange rate intervention.

Presenter: Shin-ichi Fukuda, Tokyo University

Comments by Discussants
Discussant 1: Michael Plummer, Professor, SAIS-Bologna
Discussant 2: Don Nakhorntab, Head, Macroeconomic Policy Team, Bank of Thailand

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee Break

Session IV: Recommendations Related to the “Impossible Trinity”
Chairperson: Wendy Dobson, Professor, Toronto University, Canada

Paper 8: Foreign exchange reserves and the “impossible trinity”
This paper analyzes the extent to which holding of international reserves and financial development can relax the constraints of the impossible trinity. The central issue it examines is whether policies to develop capital markets can provide countries in Asia with greater room to pursue the objectives of free capital mobility and reasonable exchange rate stability while retaining some monetary policy autonomy.

Paper presenter: Hiro Ito, Professor, Portland State University, USA.

Paper 9: Timing of capital market liberalization
This paper analyzes issues of capital account liberalization for India, specifically, and for Asia's emerging markets more generally. For example, in the current crisis situation, should they move even more slowly, if at all? What policies and institutions, including regional cooperation, are needed to help the countries move forward?

Paper presenter: Ila Patnaik and Ajay Shah, Senior Fellows, National Institute for Public Finance and Policy, New Delhi

Comments by Discussants
Discussant 1: Yung Chul PARK, Professor, Korea University, Korea
Discussant 2: Kenji Aramaki, Professor, Tokyo University

Open Floor Discussion

Session V: Impacts on Asia of the Global Financial Crisis and Policy Responses
Chairperson: Toshihiro Ihori, Professor, University of Tokyo

Paper 8: Asia's dynamic adjustment to the global financial crisis
This paper analyzes the impacts of the global financial crisis and monetary and fiscal policy responses on the Asian economy, using a DSGE modeling approach.

Presenters:
Masahiro Kawai, Dean, ADBI
Fan Zhai, Research Fellow, ADBI

Comments by Discussant
Discussant: Don H. KIM, Professor, Yonsei University, Korea

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee break

Session VI: Policy Challenges by Subregion

A: China and North America
Chairperson: Peter Petri, Professor, Brandeis University

Panelists:
China: HUANG Yiping, Peking University
North America: Wendy Dobson, University of Toronto

Open Floor Discussion

Lunch

B: Other Asia and Latin America
Chairperson: Mario Lamberte, ADBI

Panelists:
Advanced Asia: Shinji Takagi, Osaka University
Southeast Asia: Michael Plummer, Johns Hopkins University
Latin America: Raimundo Soto, Catholic University of Chile

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee Break

Session VII: Macroeconomic Policies for a Sustained Recovery

Comments on Policy Messages
Chairperson: Masahiro Kawai, ADBI

Shinji Takagi, Osaka University—summary of key issues
Yung Chul Park, Korea University
Kazumasa Iwata, Cabinet Office
Don Nakhorntab, Bank of Thailand
HUANG Yiping (tbc)
Ajay Shah, NIPFP

Open Floor Discussion