Conference on Global Financial Crisis: Impacts, Lessons, and Growth Rebalancing
Agenda

Registration

Opening Remarks - Masahiro Kawai, Dean, ADBI

Overview - Yung Chul Park, Professor, Korea University and Lead Consultant

• Presentation: The Global Economic Crisis and Rebalancing Growth in Asia : Key Issues[ PDF 58.7KB | 9 pages ]

Session I: Crisis Management Lessons: Japan and Sweden

Chairperson: Victor H. Frank, Jr., President, Asian Programs Foundation and Member, ADBI Advisory Council

Paper 1: Japan
This paper discusses the experience of Japan during its economic crisis in the 1990s, including an assessment of the effectiveness of monetary, fiscal and financial sector policy, measures recently undertaken by the authorities to address the impact on Japan of the current global financial and economic crisis and lessons for other Asian countries.

Presenters:
(1) Mitsuhiro Fukao, Professor, Keio University
(2) Mariko Fujii, Professor, The University of Tokyo and
Masahiro Kawai, Dean, ADBI

• Presentation: Japanese Financial Crisis and Crisis Management[ PDF 844.2KB | 22 pages ]
• Presentation: Crisis Management Lessons: Japanese Case[ PDF 372.2KB | 32 pages ]
• Presentation: Global Financial & Economic Crisis and Asia[ PDF 67.6KB | 10 pages ]

Paper 2: Sweden
This paper discusses the experience of Sweden during its economic crisis period, including an assessment of the effectiveness of financial sector policy, and lessons that can be drawn for Asia.

Presenter: Lars Jonung, Professor, Research Adviser, DG ECFIN, European Commission

• Presentation: Financial Crisis & Crisis Management in Sweden: Lessons for Today[ PDF 174.2KB | 43 pages ]

Comments by Discussants

Discussant 1: Eric Girardin, Professor, Université de la Méditerranée, Aix-Marseille, France
Discussant 2: Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Distinguished Fellow, Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI)

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee break

Session II: Current Crisis Development and Responses: US and Europe

Chairperson: Masahiko Aoki, Professor and Senior Fellow of Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research at Stanford University and President, International Economic Association

Paper 3: United States
This paper presents lessons from the experience so far of the US during the current economic crisis period, including an assessment of the effectiveness of monetary, fiscal and financial sector policies.

Presenter: Barry Bosworth, Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.

• Presentation: America's Financial Crisis: End of an Era?[ PDF 105.2KB | 26 pages ]

Paper 4: Europe
This paper presents lessons from the experience so far of Europe during the current economic crisis period, including an assessment of the effectiveness of monetary, fiscal and financial sector policies.

Presenter: Charles Wyplosz, Professor and Director of ICMB, Geneva Graduate Institute for Europe

• Presentation: The Euro Area in the current crisis[ PDF 158.3KB | 16 pages ]

Comments by Discussants

Discussant 1: Shigeto Nagai, Associate Director-General, Center for Monetary Cooperation in Asia, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan
Discussant 2: Mohamed Ariff, Executive Director, MIER, Malaysia

Open Floor Discussion

Lunch Break

Session III: Macroeconomic Impacts

Chairperson: Andrew MacIntyre, Director, Crawford School of Economics and Government, Australian National University

Paper 5: Macroeconomic impacts 1
This paper provides an analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the global economic and financial crisis on Asian economies, using a regional macroeconomic model.

Presenter: Jong Wha Lee, Officer-in-Charge, Office of the Chief Economist, ADB

• Presentation: Global Financial and Economic Crisis: Impacts, Lessons, and Growth Rebalancing[ PDF 202.1KB | 32 pages ]

Paper 6: Macroeconomic impacts 2
This paper discusses what past recessions and recoveries in Asia can teach us about the shape, duration, and cost of the current recession and recovery cycle. More specifically, the paper addresses questions such as: were all recessions in Asia alike, or are recessions accompanied by financial stress or global comovement deeper and longer? Are some Asian countries more exposed than others? What are the key drivers of recessions and recoveries in Asia, compared with recessions and recoveries in other parts of the world? How does the current recession, so far, compare with past recessions in terms of cost and dynamics? What policies are more likely to succeed?

Presenter: Jacques Miniane, Asia and Pacific Department, International Monetary Fund (IMF)

• Presentation: Recessions and Recoveries in Asia:What Can the Past Teach Us About the Present Recession?[ PDF 656.9KB | 29 pages ]

Open Floor Discussion

Session IV: Current Crisis Development, Responses and Growth Rebalancing: Asia - A
The papers in general examine the impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on Asia and analyze the potential for rebalancing growth.

Chairperson: Peter Petri , Professor, Brandeis University, Massachusetts and Visiting Fellow, ADBI

Paper 7: People's Republic of China (PRC)
This paper examines the evolving global financial and economic crisis from PRC's perspective, assesses PRC's responses, and discusses potential for rebalancing growth and policy measures to be implemented to achieve it.

Presenters: YU Yongding, Director-General, IWEP, CASS, People's Republic of China and Zhang Bin, Director of Editorial Board of Journal of World Economy, IWEP, CASS, People's Republic of China

• Presentation: Chinese Economy under Global Financial Turmoil - Recent Development, Policy Responses, and Rebalancing Strategy[ PDF 193.3KB | 30 pages ]

Paper 8: ASEAN, PRC and Taipei,China
This paper discusses efforts made by these economies to stimulate domestic consumption and investment to make up for the loss in export earnings. More specifically, the paper asks what policy measures – fiscal policy, monetary policy and institutional reforms – to be implemented so countries will depend more on domestic demand for growth in the future.

Paper presenter: Andrew Filardo, Research Director, Bank for International Settlements, Hong Kong, China

• Presentation: Short-Term Policy Responses to the Crisis and Risks to Medium-Term Policy Frameworks in Asia: Complications Arising from Global Imbalances[ PDF 399.2KB | 25 pages ]

Comments by Discussants

Discussant 1: Willem Thorbecke, RIETI
Discussant 2: David S. Hong, President, TIER, Taipei,China

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee Break

Session V: Current Crisis Development, Responses and Growth Rebalancing: Asia - B
The papers in general examine the impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on Asia and analyze the potential for rebalancing growth

Chairperson: Cielito F. Habito, Professor, Ateneo de Manila University, Philippines and Visiting Fellow, ADBI

Paper 9: ASEAN - Thailand
This paper reviews lessons that can be drawn from the 1997-98 crisis for crisis management in ASEAN countries; assesses ASEAN’s responses to the current financial and economic crisis; and discusses potential for rebalancing growth and policy measures to be implemented to achieve it.

Paper presenter: Chalongphob Susangkarn, Distinguished Fellow, TDRI, Thailand
Somchai Jitsuchon, Research Director, Macroeconomic Development and Income Distribution, TDRI

• Presentation: Thailand's Growth Rebalancing[ PDF 361KB | 31 pages ]

Paper 10: ASEAN - Malaysia
This paper reviews lessons that can be drawn from the 1997-98 crisis for crisis management in ASEAN countries; assesses Malaysia’s responses to the current financial and economic crisis; and discusses potential for rebalancing growth and policy measures to be implemented to achieve it.

Presenter: Mohamed Ariff, Executive Director, MIER, Malaysia
Shankaran Nambiar, Senior Research Fellow, MIER

• Presentation: Malaysia and the Global Economic Crisis: Impact, Response and Rebalancing Strategies[ PDF 243.3KB | 35 pages ]

Comments by Discussants

Discussant 1: Josef T. Yap, President, PIDS, Philippines
Discussant 2: Hadi Soesastro, Executive Director, CSIS, Indonesia

Open Floor Discussion

Session VI: Current Crisis Development, Responses and Growth Rebalancing: Asia - C
The papers in general examine the impacts of the global financial and economic crisis on Asia and analyze the potential for rebalancing growth

Chairperson: Fan Gang, Director, National Economics Research Institute, China Reform Foundation, PRC

Paper 11: India
This paper examines the evolving global financial and economic crisis from India's perspective, assesses India's responses, and discusses potential for rebalancing growth and policy measures to be implemented to achieve it.

Presenter: Rajiv Kumar, Director and Chief Executive, ICRIER, India

• Presentation: Global Economic Crisis: Impacts on India[ PDF 750.8KB | 41 pages ]

Paper 12: Republic of Korea
This paper reviews Korea's experience with the 1997-98 crisis, examines the evolving global financial and economic crisis from Korea's perspective, assesses Korea's responses, and discusses potential for rebalancing growth and policy measures to be implemented to achieve it.

Presenter: Dong Chul Cho, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis Division, KDI, Korea

• Presentation: The Korean Economy in the Swirl of Global Crisis[ PDF 351.2KB | 46 pages ]

Comments by Discussants

Discussant 1: Vo Tri Thanh, Director, DIIS, CIEM, Viet Nam
Discussant 2: Donghyun Park, Senior Economist, ERD, ADB

Open Floor Discussion

Paper 13: Intra-Regional Trade
This paper analyzes the potential for increasing the growth of intra-regional trade in final-demand goods and growth in Asian countries and offers concrete policy suggestions for achieving it.

Presenter: Prema-Chandra Athukorala, Professor, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

• Presentation: Intra-Regional Trade in East Asia: The Decoupling Fallacy, Crisis, and Policy Challenges[ PDF 99.3KB | 25 pages ]

Comments by Discussants

Shujiro Urata, Professor, Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies, Waseda University, Japan

Open Floor Discussion

Coffee Break

Session VII: Panel Session

Panel Session
Chairperson: Masahiro Kawai

Panelists:
Yung Chul Park, Korea University – summary of key issues discussed
FAN Gang, NERI
Rajiv Kumar, ICRIER
Chalongphob Sussangkarn, TDRI
Mariko Fujii, the University of Tokyo
Barry Bosworth, the Brookings Institution
Lars Jonung, EC

• Presentation: Panel Debate[ PDF 556.2KB | 12 pages ]