Distinguished Speakers Seminars

A. Michael Spence, recipient of the 2001 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences and chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, which is supported by the World Bank, bilateral donors, and the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, discussed the Commission's work to deepen the understanding of sustained and inclusive growth and development on 24 March 2008.

Professor Spence noted that 12 (now revised to 13 with the addition of Brazil) economies have achieved sustained high growth, showing 7% or more for 25 years or more. There is a wider range of countries that have experienced recent growth accelerations. The jury, however, is still out on whether these more recent growth accelerations can be transformed into sustainable growth dynamics. These economies have different starting points, growth patterns, and drivers of growth, but they appear to have common elements that sustained their growth momentum. These include leveraging the global economy; market incentives and decentralization; high levels of savings and public and private investment; resource mobility; stable and functional investment environment; political leadership and effective, pragmatic, and (when needed) activist government; and pragmatism and willingness to experiment. For countries that have sustained high growth, the transition period from low to high income is shorter (see Figure).

Growth Dynamics: Transitions in Years as a Function of the Growth Rate

Professor Spence pointed out that the government should be pragmatic and should not be guided by dogma. The role of the government evolves over time as the economy matures, expands its capabilities, and integrates into the global economy. The government must provide leadership and vision, adopt effective communication strategies, and build consensus.

Finally, Professor Spence noted some global trends such as rising income inequality and resistance to globalization; impacts of global warming on developing countries; global implications of the growth of the People's Republic of China and India; demographics, aging, and migration; and global governance, imbalances, and the rising influence and impact of developing countries that pose the challenge of policy coordination with new important players. These trends need to be given more attention by key world leaders.

Read a more detailed summary of Professor Spence's seminar.

Mahani Zainal Abidin, Director-General of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies in Malaysia, discussed the impact of changing demographics and the need for human capital in Asia's development on 25 March 2008. She first noted two contrasting demographic trends in Asia: North East Asian countries of East Asia has been experiencing falling population growth rates and a growing aging population while the rest of East Asia has had high population growth rates with a relatively young population age structure. At the same time, a substantial level of migration flows is being seen, particularly in South East Asia.

Dr. Mahani argued that the emergence of new economic powers in Asia can be based on population size. Aside from providing large markets for products and services, countries with rapidly increasing populations can attract investment, and they therefore have the potential to become centers for production. However, demographic characteristics can be a strength or a burden to a country, so managing demographic factors is an essential strategy.

Read a more detailed summary of Dr. Mahani's seminar.

Marcus Noland, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, DC, discussed the making of the North Korean famine in the 1990s. He pointed out in his 18 April 2008 seminar that North Korea pursued collectivization of its agriculture after the Korean War and made the agricultural system one of the most input-intensive in the world. Since the country conducted half of its foreign trade with the Soviet Union, the disintegration of the latter brought about a massive trade shock. The North Korean industrial economy imploded and, deprived of industrial inputs, agricultural output plummeted.

He indicated that in the short-run, food aid is needed to respond to the current food crisis. However, Noland suggested that the long-run solution to North Korea's chronic food problems was for the country to open up externally and export manufactured goods, mining products, and other goods. He emphasized that a permanent solution to the North Korean food crisis and its economic revival would continue to depend on future diplomatic developments.

Read a more detailed summary of Marcus Noland's seminar.

Chalongphob Sussangkarn, Distinguished Fellow at the Thailand Development Research Institute and a former finance minister of Thailand, delivered a lecture entitled “Bridging Research and Policy: Perspectives from Experiences in Research and in Government” on 29 July 2008. He stressed the importance of developing trust and networking with public agency officials in a partnership mode to make research results much more effective than can be achieved by either party working alone. Technical transfer of knowledge is also necessary to cultivate long-term networking between think tanks and public sector agencies.

Dr. Chalongphob takes the view that because both research and policy are multi-dimensional and complex, the bridging is necessarily complex. Thus, how to make best use of the policy research and bridging capacities already available in developing countries will be the biggest future challenge, rather than simply concentrating on building more policy research and bridging capacities.

Read a more detailed summary of Dr. Chalongphob's seminar.