Continued Economic Rebound

Starting from the devastated economic base during the conflict years, the Afghan economy has shown an estimated 28.6 percent real growth from FY2001/02 to FY2002/03.³ Main contributors to the high growth rate included recovered agricultural production after drought years, a construction boom underway in urban areas and increased service establishments driven by the donor community’s spending and emergency assistance efforts. The growth rate for FY2003/04 is estimated to be 16 percent.⁴ While growth in construction and service sectors continued to be strong, the agricultural sector growth has slowed from the previous year's strong rebound. IMF puts growth projection for FY2004/05 also at 16 percent, implying per capita income of $246, which is still among the lowest in the world.

The state of poverty in Afghanistan is obviously serious but there are no systematic quantitative data based on a rigorously defined poverty line. Indications are that at least more than half of the population would be under the expenditure corresponding to the minimum required food and non-food consumption basket. The National Risk and Vulnerability Survey (NRVA) carried out in 2003 by the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development, covering 1,850 rural villages and over 11,000 households, estimated rural expenditures at $165 per year per capita.⁵

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