Need for Reintegration in the Short Run and Human Capital Building in the Long Run

The difficulty of prescribing human resource development in Afghanistan starts with the uncertain estimate of the population, which could range anywhere between 22 to 27 million, including returned refugees, nomads and internally displaced persons (IDPs). The difficulty is exacerbated by the high pace of refugees returning from neighboring countries. According to UNHCR, more than 2 million Afghan refugees have repatriated from Pakistan, about 900,000 from Iran, and furthermore, about 443,000 IDPs have returned home since early 2002 up to July 2004.

Social indicators for Afghanistan are among the worst in the world. According to the UNICEF’s Multi-Indicator Cluster Survey in 2003, covering over 20,000 households, infant mortality and under-five mortality at 115 and 172, respectively, per thousand live births are among the world’s highest. Nine out of ten births are not taking place in health facilities. Family planning is largely non-existent. Morbidity rates are extremely high at 30 percent. Illiteracy is also extremely high at 57 percent for men and 86 percent for women above 15 years of age. By all indications the current population growth rate is well above 2 percent per year.²⁰

The economically active population in 2002 was about 11 million. While there are no official unemployment rate estimates,²¹ it is evident that youth unemployment rates are high. The number of unemployed or underemployed should be rising with the recent inflow of young returning refugees. While there is an acute need to create immediate employment opportunities especially for young ex-combatants in order to avoid their remilitarization and to reintegrate them into productive activities, human resource potential of the whole population must be raised over the long run through investments in human capital.

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