Conclusion

For this paper we used a unique set of data from the RUMiCI project to investigate the employment impact of the economic downturn on rural–urban migrants. We found that, on average, the economic downturn has adversely affected 13%–19% of jobs for rural–urban migrants. This estimate is higher than the 10%–15% cited in the literature using data from migrant-originating regions.

We also found that the migrants whose jobs were most likely to be affected by the economic downturn were those who would normally be affected in any economy. These people were less educated, single, and not in the primary age and had less migration experience.

Perhaps the most interesting result of the study is the wide-ranging nature of the job loss, which has not been confined to export manufacturing but has also been significant in the non–tradable goods sectors—construction, retail, and wholesale. Job loss has occurred in all cities and not just in the cities that generally come to mind when we think of export-oriented employment for migrant workers.

We take this to mean that job loss in the PRC is a response not only to the global financial crisis but also to domestic economic policies, particularly the tight monetary policy over the last few years and the introduction of the Labor Law. Of course, as the economy responds to the global financial crisis this pattern of job loss may change and the loss of jobs in the export sector, at least in relative terms, may become more important.

Only one possible effect of the economic downturn was studied for this paper. In a flexible labor market, the most adjustment may occur not through employment but through changes in wages. Fortunately, the second and later waves of RUMiCI data will allow us to address the issue of the extent to which the economic downturn has affected the wages of migrant workers, their standard of living, the poverty rate for this group of people, and return migration.

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